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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It frequently acts as a kind of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However this year's race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been messy, with recent division champions declining and recent also-rans ascending collectively. In an normal season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and fun season, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is rare for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal year, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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