Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
